What Signals Are We Getting From The Federal Reserve

What is the Federal Reserve trying to do with all of the comments and news conferences by the governors? Haven't we been hearing that they will continue to keep rates low into 2015? Well, knowing how the Fed works I would say that they are ...trying to soften the market and not have to look like the bad guys by putting the brakes on an already slow economy. So much for 2015 - last week the Fed meeting minutes had several dissenting and saying that rates may be low only until the end of 2013 - WHAT! After they state MULTIPLE times that 2015 was the magic date they drop this on the economy and the markets react immediately to change their positions (see chart January 3) and uncertainty is once again taking over the markets. Interest rates rose 1/4% immediately.

Third Quarter 2012 Revised GDP

Third Quarter GDP Revised Higher. From July to September, the economy grew faster than previously thought increasing from 2.7% in the second reading to 3.1% in the final GDP reading. This is the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2011 when the economy grew at a 4.1% rate. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the total production and consumption of goods and services in the U.S. GDP components like consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's behavior.

Home Prices Up Again In Most Markets

 

 

Home prices in the September Case Shiller 20-city composite increased 3.0% from September 2011. From August to September, the 20-city composite was also up, posting a gain of 0.3%. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter from 2011 and was up 2.2% from the second quarter of 2012. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data.

October Unemployment State By State

 

         
                               
For October, 37 states and the District of Columbia saw unemployment rate declines, 7 states had increases, while 6 had no change. Year-over-year, 42 states plus the District of Columbia recorded unemployment decreases. Because Housing and ...

Jobs are so closely related, it is important to watch for changing trends in the Unemployment level. The chart below displays current levels of Unemployment by state. This information will be updated monthly.

Huge Jump In Unemployment Claims

For the week ending Novemeber 10, Initial Jobless Claims jumped 78,000 to an 18-month high of 439,000. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, the one-week increase in jobless claims was the largest since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast.

Initial jobless claims measure the number of people (non industry-specific) filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with changes in claims potentially signaling changes in job growth. It is assumed the stronger the job market, the greater the spending power, the healthier the economy. Weekly claims are volatile and data can be skewed by holidays; therefore, many analysts track a four week moving average of data to get a better sense of the underlying trend in claims.

September JOLTS

 

The September Job Openings and Labor Turnover report (JOLTS) came in at 3561K, down from the upwardly revised number of 3661K for August. This was also below the expectations of 3653K and marks the lowest reading since April.

The data for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are collected and compiled monthly from a sample of business establishments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In a monthly survey of business establishments, data are collected for total employment, job openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. The JOLTS program covers all private nonfarm establishments such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

New Home Sales September

 

 

September new home sales jumped 5.7% to 389,000, up from the August level of 368,000. This marks the highest pace for new home sales since April 2010, during the first-time homebuyer tax credit. The new home supply dropped from 4.7 months i...

n August to 4.5 months for September.

The New Home Sales report shows the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. It is compiled through nationwide survey of 10,000 builders/owners of 15,000 building projects and through sampling of permit-issuing offices, as well as land not covered by building permits. The data is timely and is used in conjunction with the existing home sales release from the National Association of Realtors. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends, and economic momentum signaling consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Simply, the volume of sales indicates housing demand.